Aid architecture

Aid predictability

 

The current lack of transparency and predictability of aid have been recognized as key bottlenecks in making aid more effective. To help efforts toward greater predictability and transparency, the OECD conducts the Survey on Donors’ Forward Spending Plans, aunique instrument that brings together most bilateral and multilateral aid spending plans – and the only regular, global process of its kind.

The Provisional Outlook on Aid shows CPA for 2012 is estimated at USD 92.2 billion. A zero change from 2011, because of increased efforts by non-DAC donors offsetting the 1% real term decline by DAC members. In 2013 CPA is projected to bounce back with a 9% increase, likely resulting from planned increases of soft loans from a few larger development providers. Beyond 2013, however, global CPA is expected to stagnate (2014-2016); this may reflect the uncertainty of the current economic environment.

Analyses of earlier submissions to the Survey present two scenarios going forward: a "high" scenario, where the crisis passes and aid volumes continue to rise; or a "low" scenario, with a longer period of stagnation where the focus will be on maintaining current aid levels.

 Actual and projected CPA volume 2000-2016

 

Latest documents

 

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Outlook on Aid: Survey on donors' forward spending plans 2013-2016 (.pdf, 361 KB)

This paper provides the provisional key findings of the OECD DAC Survey on Donors' Forward Spending Plans. In 2013 global CPA is projected to bounce back with a 9% increase, reflecting the planned increases of a few larger bilateral development providers. However, looking beyond 2013, global CPA is expected to stagnate over 2014-2016, possibly reflecting the uncertainty of the current economic environment. It is important to note that ona country by country basis, CPA is not being programmed to where it is most needed. The final 2013 Survey results will be available in June 2013, and for the first time will include information from major non-DAC donors, including the Czech Republic, Kuwait, Poland, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

 

 Thumbnail 2012 DAC report on Aid Predictability

2012 OECD DAC Report on Aid Predictability: Survey on Donors' Forward Spending Plans 2012-2015 and Efforts since HLF-4 (.pdf, 1.35 MB)

The 2012 DAC report on Aid Predictability focuses on the latest outlook in aid based on the key findings from the 2012 Survey on Donors' Forward Spending Plans. It also assesses DAC members' recent efforts to increase the medium-term predictability of aid in line with commitments they have made in the Busan Partnership for Effective Development Co-operation.

This report was a background document for the DAC High Level Meeting in December 2012.

Outlook on Aid: Preliminary Findings from the OECD DAC Survey on Donors’ Forward Spending Plans 2012-2015

Looking beyond 2011, the 2012 OECD-DAC Survey on Donors’ Forward Spending Plans suggests that global CPA may rise somewhat (6% in real terms) in 2012 mainly due to expected increases in soft loans from multilateral agencies. From 2013, global CPA is expected to stagnate, and could thus confirm earlier findings that it takes several years from the outbreak of a recession for the full impact to be felt on aid flows. This 2-pager provides the provisional key findings from the Survey. The final 2012 Survey results will be available in June 2012, and will include for the first time detailed programming information for those countries that have agreed to make these data available. It is expected that these results will shape donor headquarter-level discussions on future aid allocations.

 

2011 OECD DAC Report on Aid Predictability: Survey on Donors’ Forward Spending Plans 2011-2013 (.pdf, 1.93 MB)

Tracing country programmable aid (CPA) flows, this annual survey on donors' forward spending plans aims to reduce some of the uncertainty around aid at the global, regional and country level. The 2011 edition presents the main survey results as well as the main findings from the two pilot studies conducted in 2011 on how to further enhance the survey by collecting more disaggregated forward-looking data and increase its relevance for partner countries.

 

2010 OECD DAC Report on Aid Predictability: Survey on Donors’ Forward Spending Plans 2010-2012(pdf, 1.61 MB) 

This report is a unique instrument: the only regular process at the global level that brings together most bilateral and multilateral aid spending plans 1-3 years ahead with the aim of improving global predictability of future aid flows. The 2010 Survey is the third survey in this series. The 2010 edition of the Survey report provides an assessment of indicative forward programming to countries that need it the most in order to reach the MDGs by providing a first indication of the collective forward programming of bilateral and major multilateral donors’ up to 2012, mid-way to 2015. The international development community faces the challenges of aid prospects and needs through 2015, as ODA is a necessary and complementary source of finance for development to reach the MDGs. The report is intended both for policy makers in recipient countries as a guide to overall planning of aid resources and for aid managers in donor countries and international agencies to inform their aid allocation decisions.

2009 DAC Report on Aid Predictability: Survey on Donors’ Forward Spending Plans 2009-2011 (pdf, 4.15 MB)

The 2009 report presents the results of the second complete survey in the series. It identifies potential gaps, overlaps and opportunities for future aid allocations for all 153 DAC aid recipient countries. It is intended both for policy makers in recipient countries as a guide to overall planning of aid resources and for aid managers in donor countries and international agencies to inform their aid allocation decisions. The Survey suggests that planned increases in aid still fall short of the required increases needed to meet the global aid commitments, in particular for Africa, and that exceptional measures need to be taken by donors to rebalance the current programmed allocations.

Report of 2008 Survey of Aid Allocation Policies and Indicative Forward Spending Plans (pdf, 1.49 MB)
  > Summary of the report (pdf, 406 KB)
  > Download fragmentation data (xls,151 KB)

It is nearly three years since DAC members announced renewed commitments to increase ODA to coincide with the Millennium+5 Summit in New York. As part of monitoring the delivery of these commitments, in late 2007 and early 2008 the DAC conducted its first full annual Survey on Aid Allocation Policies and Indicative Forward Spending Plans. The Survey report is a key stimulus to improving medium term predictability of aid. The Survey shows that most donors operate multi-year programming frameworks, allowing for predictability of aid. The analysis on existing fragmentation of aid provides essential background information to review global aid allocation decisions and to take forward action on improving division of labour between donors.

 

 

Data series

 

 

Data series on donors’ forward spending plans by donor and country from 2012 (preliminary data) up to 2016.

Download full data series on donors’ forward spending plans by donor and country from 2012 (preliminary data) up to 2016 (same as on OECD.stat):

These figures represent donors' future plans of Country Programmable Aid (CPA) as reported to the 2012 OECD-DAC Survey on Donors' Forward Spending Plans. They are donors’ current indicative planning figures, and do not represent firm commitments, but rather donors’ best estimates of future aid efforts. The figures can include both future spending of already committed, on-going aid projects and programmes, as well as estimates of future total country budget envelopes over the next three years. The total figures presented for each donor should therefore be taken as indicative and not misconstrued as obligations of any sort.

Click here for more information on CPA.

Download the full data series on donors' forward spending plans by activity up to 2016 (limited number of countries):

By country:

Download full data series on donors' forward spending plans by activity from the Survey conducted in 2012:

Please note that the aggregates of activity-level data for the CRS++ pilot countries may in some cases differ slightly compared to aggregate FSS data by donor and country submitted in the standard format.

 

 

 

Related Documents

 

Country Programmable Aid (CPA)

 

Countries list

  • Afghanistan
  • Albania
  • Algeria
  • Andorra
  • Angola
  • Anguilla
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Argentina
  • Armenia
  • Aruba
  • Australia
  • Austria
  • Azerbaijan
  • Bahamas
  • Bahrain
  • Bangladesh
  • Barbados
  • Belarus
  • Belgium
  • Belize
  • Benin
  • Bermuda
  • Bhutan
  • Bolivia
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Botswana
  • Brazil
  • Brunei Darussalam
  • Bulgaria
  • Burkina Faso
  • Burundi
  • Cambodia
  • Cameroon
  • Canada
  • Cape Verde
  • Cayman Islands
  • Central African Republic
  • Chad
  • Chile
  • China (People’s Republic of)
  • Chinese Taipei
  • Colombia
  • Comoros
  • Congo
  • Cook Islands
  • Costa Rica
  • Croatia
  • Cuba
  • Cyprus
  • Czech Republic
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Democratic People's Republic of Korea
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Denmark
  • Djibouti
  • Dominica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Ecuador
  • Egypt
  • El Salvador
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Eritrea
  • Estonia
  • Ethiopia
  • European Union
  • Faeroe Islands
  • Fiji
  • Finland
  • Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM)
  • France
  • French Guiana
  • Gabon
  • Gambia
  • Georgia
  • Germany
  • Ghana
  • Gibraltar
  • Greece
  • Greenland
  • Grenada
  • Guatemala
  • Guernsey
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Guyana
  • Haiti
  • Honduras
  • Hong Kong, China
  • Hungary
  • Iceland
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Iraq
  • Ireland
  • Islamic Republic of Iran
  • Isle of Man
  • Israel
  • Italy
  • Jamaica
  • Japan
  • Jersey
  • Jordan
  • Kazakhstan
  • Kenya
  • Kiribati
  • Korea
  • Kuwait
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Lao People's Democratic Republic
  • Latvia
  • Lebanon
  • Lesotho
  • Liberia
  • Libya
  • Liechtenstein
  • Lithuania
  • Luxembourg
  • Macao (China)
  • Madagascar
  • Malawi
  • Malaysia
  • Maldives
  • Mali
  • Malta
  • Marshall Islands
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mayotte
  • Mexico
  • Micronesia (Federated States of)
  • Moldova
  • Monaco
  • Mongolia
  • Montenegro
  • Montserrat
  • Morocco
  • Mozambique
  • Myanmar
  • Namibia
  • Nauru
  • Nepal
  • Netherlands
  • Netherlands Antilles
  • New Zealand
  • Nicaragua
  • Niger
  • Nigeria
  • Niue
  • Norway
  • Oman
  • Pakistan
  • Palau
  • Palestinian Administered Areas
  • Panama
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Paraguay
  • Peru
  • Philippines
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Puerto Rico
  • Qatar
  • Romania
  • Russian Federation
  • Rwanda
  • Saint Helena
  • Saint Kitts and Nevis
  • Saint Lucia
  • Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
  • Samoa
  • San Marino
  • Sao Tome and Principe
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Senegal
  • Serbia
  • Serbia and Montenegro (pre-June 2006)
  • Seychelles
  • Sierra Leone
  • Singapore
  • Slovak Republic
  • Slovenia
  • Solomon Islands
  • Somalia
  • South Africa
  • South Sudan
  • Spain
  • Sri Lanka
  • Sudan
  • Suriname
  • Swaziland
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • Syrian Arab Republic
  • Tajikistan
  • Tanzania
  • Thailand
  • Timor-Leste
  • Togo
  • Tokelau
  • Tonga
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • Tunisia
  • Turkey
  • Turkmenistan
  • Turks and Caicos Islands
  • Tuvalu
  • Uganda
  • Ukraine
  • United Arab Emirates
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
  • United States Virgin Islands
  • Uruguay
  • Uzbekistan
  • Vanuatu
  • Venezuela
  • Vietnam
  • Virgin Islands (UK)
  • Wallis and Futuna Islands
  • Western Sahara
  • Yemen
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe