Modelling and Statistical Analysis

The Department's work on projections and scenario analysis is supported by the use an international linkage model, INTERLINK. Longer term modelling is sometimes used to assess the impact of different policy settings. Recent examples relate to climate change and population ageing.

What's new

The impact of changes in second pension pillars on public finances in Central and Eastern Europe

09-Feb-2012

This paper studies the impact of recent changes in second pension pillars of three Central and Eastern European Countries on the deficit and implicit debt of their full pension systems.

The nature of financial and real business cycles: the great moderation and banking sector pro-cyclicality

19-Jan-2012

This paper takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly and monthly economic indicators.

Explaining the interest-rate-growth differential underlying government debt dynamics

02-Jan-2012

The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability. Among OECD economies, this differential was unusually low for much of the last decade compared with the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s.

Reassessing the NAIRUs after the crisis

02-Jan-2012

The financial crisis has resulted in a substantial increase in unemployment in the OECD. This paper shows that this increase has reversed the reduction in structural unemployment which has been estimated to have occurred in most OECD countries since the late 1990s.

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