Overview of
CEPR’s Programme Activities 2004/05
3. INSTITUTIONS AND ECONOMIC
PERFORMANCE
4. INTERNATIONAL
MACROECONOMICS
8. ECONOMIC HISTORY
INITIATIVE
Programme
Directors:
Marco Pagano (Università di Federico II,
Raman Uppal (
Number of Researchers: Fellows: 66
Affiliates: 50
Discussion Papers Published: 115
Research
Themes:
Pensions: social security reforms and development of capital markets; pension
fund management and governance; pension fund solvency and regulation.
Integration of European financial markets: direct effects of EMU (shrinking of
currency markets and emergence of Europe-wide interbank loan and corporate bond
markets); indirect effects of EMU (cross-border trading and diversification,
cross-border mergers and acquisitions, increased liquidity and breadth of
markets); impact on the cost of capital; the role of the euro in international
finance and investment.
Banking and liquidity provision: the role of collateral in relationships
between banks and their customers; the role of central banks in ensuring the
stability of interbank markets; deposit insurance and excess risk taking by
banks.
Primary equity market: the growth of European IPOs since 1997; the
introduction of book building in
Corporate governance: costs and benefits of ownership concentration; role
of European regulation in corporate governance; market for corporate control
and takeover regulation; international convergence or path-dependence of
corporate governance systems.
Law and finance: why investor protection and legal enforcement are
correlated with financial development and the growth and size of companies; the
relationship between investor protection, the development of equity markets and
the growth of R&D intensive industries; the interplay between political
coalitions, legal system and finance.
Geography and finance: the continuing role of geography and the importance
of localised information in stock trading; the impact of information,
transaction costs and market size on asset flows; European financial
integration, competition among European stock exchanges through trading and
listing fees, listing requirements, consolidation of stock exchanges and
alliances between them; the cross-listing decisions of firms. Capital Markets:
including equity markets and portfolio management, markets for fixed income
securities; foreign exchange markets; markets for derivative instruments and
risk management.
Current
Projects:
§
Understanding
Financial Architecture: Legal and Political Frameworks and Economic Efficiency (European Commission Research Training
Network – Fifth Framework Programme): 2000-2004. This network brought together
ten teams, including two from the
§
Financing
Retirement in
Further
information can be found at: http://www.cepr.org/research/Networks/FINRET
§
European
Corporate Governance Training Network (European Commission Marie Curie Research Training
Network): 2004-2008. Recent corporate
governance scandals in the
§
European
Network for the Advancement of Behavioural Economics (European Commission Marie Curie Research
Training Network – Sixth Framework Programme): 2004-2008. During the last two decades a growing number
of empirical studies have revealed widespread violations of key assumptions
that underlie conventional economic theory, violations which result in outcomes
that are markedly different from those generated by the conventional theory.
This has led to a search for psychological principles that complement or, if
necessary, replace these conventional assumptions in order to improve the
explanatory power of economic models. Important empirical and theoretical
issues are, however, still unresolved. The European Network for the Advancement
of Behavioural Economics, which is composed of seven EU-based and two US-based
teams, aims to advance this emerging field of behavioural economics in Europe
and provide high quality training and a transfer of knowledge to young
researchers just entering the field. The network facilitates the development of
a critical mass of the brightest young researchers by concentrating the
currently highly fragmented expertise in
§
Liquidity,
Bonds, and Limits to Arbitrage (Banque de France Foundation): 2002-2005. The project has aimed to: (1) assess the
proper role of concentration measures in merger control, (2) provide a general
description of the simulation approach, (3) provide a comprehensive description
of the estimation of a structural demand system focusing on methodological
issues, (4) discuss methods other than the Structure Conduct Performance (SCP)
and the simulation approaches to assess the impact of mergers, (5) discuss
whether and how far simulation techniques allow for an appraisal of merger
efficiencies, including dynamic efficiencies, and (6) compare the SCP and the
merger simulation approaches in terms of both predictive and screening power.
Other
Academic Conferences:
§
The
§
Accounting,
Transparency and Bank Stability -
§
European
Summer Symposium in Financial Markets (ESSFM) – Gerzensee, July 2004
§
Dynamic
Portfolio Choice, Asset Pricing and Mathematical Finance -
§
Early
Securities Markets -
Programmes and
papers for all meetings may be obtained from http://www.cepr.org/meets/97MEETS/pastmeetings.asp
Programme Directors:
Philippe Aghion
(University College London)
Marc Ivaldi
(Institut D’Economie Industrielle)
Number of Researchers: Fellows: 70
Affiliates: 76
Discussion Papers Published: 96
Research
Themes:
Innovation: the interrelationship between innovation and the
structure of product and financial markets in
Competition policy: anti-trust policy as well as merger policy at the
national and the EU level; the economics of state aid; the interaction between
competition policy and trade policy; competition policy and innovation.
Liberalisation and regulation in ‘network’ industries: the liberalisation and integration of
telecommunications, energy and other network industries in
Market integration: The Impact of EMU and the Single Market on product
market integration.
Current
Projects:
§
Product
Markets, Financial Markets and the Pace of Innovation in
§
Competition
Policy in International Markets (European Commission Research Training Network). Consisting of 9 institutions, this Network is
developing new approaches to the analysis of competition policy in the light of
increasing international economic integration and the dramatic changes in
technology witnessed in the past decade.
A workshop was held on ‘Competition in International Markets’ in
§
A
critical appraisal of the simulation approach to assess the pro- and
anti-competitive aspects of horizontal mergers (European Commission Study Contract). This project
aims to: (1) assess the proper role of concentration measures (including HHIs
and market shares) in merger control, (2) provide a general description of the
simulation approach, (3) provide a comprehensive description of the estimation
of a structural demand system focusing on methodological issues, (4) discuss
methods other than the Structure Conduct Performance (SCP) and the simulation
approaches to assess the impact of mergers, (5) discuss whether and how far
simulation techniques allow for an appraisal of merger efficiencies, including
dynamic efficiencies, (6) Compare the SCP and the merger simulation approaches
in terms of booth predictive and screening power.
§
Efficiency, Equity and
Access in Indian Infrastructure: Blending Competition and Regulation (EU-India Economic Cross Cultural Programme):
2004-2006. The project is designed to deepen the
debate on infrastructure reform and regulation in
Other
Academic Conferences:
§
International
Conference on Competition, Stability and Integration in European Banking (with
ECB) –
§
European
Summer Symposium on Economic theory (With Royal Economic Society)– Gerzensee,
July 2004
§
Sixth
CEPR Conference on Applied Industrial Organisation (with the European Patent
Office) – May 2005
Programmes and
papers for all meetings may be obtained from http://www.cepr.org/meets/97MEETS/pastmeetings.asp
Publications:
§
The
Psychology of Economic Decisions - Volume 2: Reasons and Choices - Editors:
Carrillo, Juan D / Brocas, Isabelle -
July 2004
§
Monitoring
European Deregulation (MED) 3 Integration of European Banks: The Way Forward
- Authors: Berglöf, Erik / Fulghieri,
Paolo / Gual, Jordi / Mayer, Colin / Pita Barros, Pedro Luis / Vives, Xavier –
April 2005
(formerly
Transition Economics)
Programme Directors:
Erik Berglöf (Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE))
Gérard Roland (
Number of Researchers: Fellows: 64
Affiliates: 20
Discussion Papers Published: 37
The Transition Economics programme was renamed
Institutions and Economic Performance in January 2003. The overall vision of this new programme is
to contribute to the understanding of institutions and institutional change.
A significant contribution of transition economics in
the last decade has been to focus more attention on the importance of the
institutional underpinnings of successful capitalism and appropriate ways of
introducing such institutional arrangements.
These themes are also explored by other research programmes beyond
transition economics, which aim to understand:
Additionally, there is an increasing body of work
analysing specific institutions such as bankruptcy law and securities law from
a comparative perspective. Much of this
research examines complementarities between institutional arrangements, for
example between labour market institutions and financial market institutions. A number of important questions arise when
comparing different systems of capitalism:
The CEPR Transition Economics programme has been
renamed to Institutions and Economic Performance to recognise the significance
of this emerging field of research, to unify these research themes within a
focused programme, and to permit for their continuing study within the context of
transition economies and beyond.
Research
Themes:
The economic implications of eastern enlargement: the impact on intra-European trade and
production patterns.
Monetary and exchange rate policies in Central and
Competition policy in Central and
Economic transition in
Current
Projects:
§
Institutions,
Development and Transition.
The "Institutions and Economic Performance" Programme is organising
jointly with the Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development
(BREAD) an international conference on the theme "Institutions,
Development and Transition". CEPR
has in the past jointly organised with the William Davidson Institute the
"International Annual Conference on Transition Economies". This tenth
conference reflects the new research orientation of the "Institutions and
Economic Performance" Programme.
The conference intends to create a forum for leading researchers to
present new research on comparative institutions and development. There will
also be a policy component to the conference around the theme of institutional
change in
§
Trade,
Industrialisation and Development (European Commission Research Training Network – Fifth Framework
Programme). This new Network seeks to illuminate the conditions under which
countries succeed in participating effectively in the world economy and are
able to gain from attracting new economic activities. The eight teams from
across Europe and the US are working to understand better modern patterns of
industrial development; to uncover the determinants of firm performance in
developing countries and to understand the factors that enable them to
participate effectively in world trade; to analyse the underlying institutions
that shape economic development, openness and industrialisation; and to draw
out the policy implications for developing and developed countries. In November
2004, a major network conference was held in
Programmes and
papers for all meetings may be obtained from http://www.cepr.org/meets/97MEETS/pastmeetings.asp
Programme
Directors:
Giancarlo Corsetti (European University Institute),
Jordi Galí
(Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Jaume Ventura
(Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Lucrezia Reichlin
stepped down as Co-Director, to take up her new position as Head of Research at
the European Central Bank. She was replaced by Giancarlo Corsetti. Another
Co-Director Charles Wyplosz was replaced by Jaume Ventura.
Number of Researchers: Fellows: 48
Affiliates: 134
Discussion Papers Published: 225
Research
Themes:
European Monetary
Macroeconomic policy design: modelling a large
monetary union made up of several economies subject to idiosyncratic shocks and
with independent fiscal policies; the need for co-ordination between monetary
and fiscal authorities (and/or among the fiscal authorities themselves) within
EMU.
Economic fluctuations in
Exchange rate policies for the Euro zone: implications
of alternative policy strategies regarding exchange rates between the euro, US
dollar and the yen.
The international financial system: the Mexican,
Asian, and Russian crises, origins and responses; international capital flows;
Current Projects:
§
Macroeconomic
Policy Design for Monetary Unions (European Commission Research Training Network). Incorporating nine
institutions across
§
The
Analysis of International Capital Markets: Understanding
§
Specialization
Versus Diversification: The Microeconomics of Regional Development and The
Spatial Propagation of Macroeconomic Shocks in
§
Euro
Area Business Cycle Network
(EABCN) (Network funded by Euro Area Central Banks, ECB and the Bank of
England). Led by Professor Lucrezia Reichlin , EABCN provides a forum for the
better understanding of the euro area business cycle, linking academic
researchers and researchers in central banks and other policy institutions
involved in empirical analysis in this regard.
The creation of the single currency is a unique opportunity for
economists to learn more about the relationship between business cycles,
economic institutions, monetary policy and financial markets. The Network intends to become a definitive
source of data and research output on Euro economies. In time, it will also serve to define the
Euro area economic research agenda. In
2004 the network held two workshops in
§
Euro
Area Business Cycle Dating Committee. The Centre for Economic Policy Research has formed a
committee to set the dates of the euro area business cycle consisting of eight
highly respected economists. Its mission is to establish the chronology of
recessions and expansions of the 11 original euro area member countries for
1970-1998 and of the current euro area as a whole since 1999. The Committee
defines a recession as a significant decline in the level of economic activity,
spread across the economy of the euro area, usually visible in two or more
consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP, employment and other measures
of aggregate economic activity for the euro area as a whole, and reflecting
similar developments in most countries. The Committee analyses euro area
aggregate statistics, but it also monitors country statistics to make sure that
expansions or recessions are widespread over the countries of the area. There
is no fixed rule by which country information is weighted. The Committee does not use a fixed rule to
weight different data series, although it gives primary emphasis to GDP. For
more information see:
http://www.cepr.org/press/dating_en.htm
§
Exchange
Rates, Equity Prices and Capital Flows (IMHAU).
Funded by the Fondation Banque de France, this is a one-year study
contract. The research is led by Hélène Rey (
§
Managing
Financial Integration
(IMVEN). This is another study contract
funded by the Fondation Banque de France. Jaume Ventura (CREI and MIT) is
leading the research. This project aims to study the macroeconomic effects of
financial integration and simultaneously improve our understanding of how to manage
the process of financial integration.
§
The
Role of Exchange Rates in the Growth Process.
A further Banque de
France study contract with the research led by Phillipe Aghion (University
College London). The project examines how the choice of exchange rate regimes
affects the spread and nature of economic growth differently in countries at
different stages of technological or financial development.
Other Academic Conferences:
§
European
Summer Symposium in Macroeconomics –
§
Asset
price Bubbles –
§
Macroeconomic
Modelling and Policy Analysis in the Presence of Financial Frictions and Real
Rigidities – May 2005
Programmes and
papers for all meetings may be obtained from http//www.cepr.org/meets/97MEETS/pastmeetings.asp
Publications:
§
Monitoring
the European Central Bank 5 – Authors: Jordi Galí, Stefan Gerlach, Julio Rotemberg,
Harald Uhlig and Michael Woodford – February 2004
§
International
Economic and Financial Co-operation: New Issues, New Actors, New Responses (
§
The
Euro Area Business Cycle: Stylised Facts and Measurement Issues – Editor:
Lucrezia Reichlin
§
Fiscal
Policy in
Database and Indicators:
EuroCOINTM.
First released in June 2001, EuroCOIN is a new coincident indicator of
the euro area business cycle. It uses an innovative econometric methodology to
distil information from the real economy, the financial sector and surveys of
business and consumer sentiment, weighting each source of information according
to its correlation with movements of the cycle, while filtering out measurement
error and very short run volatility. The indicator is available very quickly,
well before the euro area GDP numbers are released. EuroCOIN is published each month by CEPR, and
has become one of the most popular leading indicators of the business cycle in
the EU and is now being used by the ECB, most of the national central banks,
the US Treasury, as well as being regularly published by The Economist. For further
details, visit http://www.cepr.org/data/eurocoin
Programme Directors:
Thierry Verdier (DELTA, Paris)
Riccardo Faini (Università di Roma Tor Vergata)
Number of Researchers: Fellows: 55
Affiliates: 37
Discussion Papers Published: 88
Research Themes:
This Programme area focuses on the determinants of
international trade and investment, their consequences for national economic
performance, and their implications for policy makers.
Integration and economic geography: determinants of the location of economic
activity between and within countries and regions; the impact of economic and
monetary integration on trade, industry and income.
Foreign direct investment and the behaviour of
multinationals: analysis
of the international aspects of firms' behaviour, including decisions to
export, invest, and transfer technology; the impact of trade and investment on
sending and receiving countries; international trade flows and the internal
organisation of the firm; networks and international markets.
Trade and development: the conditions under which countries succeed in
participating effectively in the world economy, and are able to gain from
attracting new economic activities; the effects of trade liberalisation and the
wider forces of globalisation on the pattern of international trade flows, on
foreign direct investment flows, and on the location of production; how
disadvantaged are countries by geography – being landlocked or remote; the
gainers and losers from reform, the impact on inequalities, and the adjustment
costs involved; the political economy of trade and development; institutional change in open economies.
The world trading system: issues in the next WTO round; trade policy in the
transition and developing economies; global governance: the role of
international institutions; NGO; civil society.
Current Projects:
§ Competition Policy Foundations for Trade Reform, Regulatory Reform and Sustainable Development-CPFTR (EC Specific Targeted Research Project, Contract no. SC8-CT-2003-502564), 2004-2005.
The purpose of this contract is to examine the extent to which the failure to take into account competition principles has compromised the economic, social, and environmental benefits of trade and domestic regulatory reforms in developing countries. The research will break new ground in at least two ways; first, by systematically documenting instances where such failures are said to have occurred in developing economies from four regions of the world and, second, by estimating the extent to which the benefits of certain trade and telecommunications-related reforms have been reduced by the absence of a rigorous competition law enforcement regime. The work will consist in developing a systematic database of the adoption of competition laws across the world and performing an econometric analysis of the relative importance of different impediments to the introduction of competition law. An assessment will be performed of the extent to which regional rules on competition law and regional competition enforcement bodies currently, and potentially in the future, substitutes for or complements national competition law and enforcement actions. For further information, please visit: http://www.cpftr.org .
§
The
Economic Geography of
§
Trade,
Industrialisation and Development (European Commission Research Training Network – Fifth Framework Programme):
2002-2006. This network seeks to illuminate the conditions under which
countries succeed in participating effectively in the world economy and are
able to gain from attracting new economic activities. The nine teams from
across Europe and the US are working to understand better modern patterns of
industrial development; to uncover the determinants of firm performance in
developing countries and to understand the factors that enable them to
participate effectively in world trade; to analyse the underlying institutions
that shape economic development, openness and industrialisation; and to draw
out the policy implications for developing and developed countries. The second network summer school took place
in Gargnano in September 2004, while the third network meeting took place in
§
The
Economics of Cities and Regions: European Integration and New Technologies (Euroconferences): 2003-2005. European cities and regions currently face
two major challenges: deepening European integration and the impact of new
technologies. The first type of issues
addresses how integration may be consistent with the Maastricht Treaty's goal
of reducing economic inequality between regions, the backwardness of
less-favoured regions, and the promotion of sustained and balanced economic and
social progress. The second dimension of
the project concerns technological change and more specifically the dramatic
development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and the
challenges they constitute for European cities and regions and the distribution
of gains or losses that result from these.
Two conferences were held: one in
§
Globalisation
and the Organisation of Firms and Markets (funded by the Volkswagen-Stiftung foundation):
2003-2007. Involving US and European
researchers working in the areas of international trade and finance,
development, and contract theory, the purpose of the network is to bring
together researchers from different traditions - such as general equilibrium
models of trade and finance, contract theory, the theory of firm and corporate
finance - to interact and to learn how their models can be adapted to general
equilibrium models of trade and finance.
The first workshop took place in
§
Steps
Taken in Regional Integration in
Other Academic Conferences:
§
Agglomeration
Economics and regional Growth -
§
European
Workshop in International Trade –
§
Regional
Development at the Periphery: Theory, Policy, and Measurement -
Programmes and
papers for all meetings may be obtained from http://www.cepr.org/meets/97MEETS/pastmeetings.asp
Programme Directors:
Jörn-Steffen Pischke (London School of Economics)
Gilles Saint-Paul (Université des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse)
Number of Researchers: Fellows: 60
Affiliates: 34
Discussion Papers Published: 70
Research Themes:
Regulation and deregulation in European labour
markets: the impact of labour market policies on productivity and growth.
Evaluating the effectiveness of European labour market
policies
Education, training and labour market outcomes
Migration and social exclusion in
Current Projects:
§
New
Techniques for the Evaluation of European Labour Market Policies (European Commission Research and Training
Network). Although there has been a
revolutionary shift in the methodology used in evaluating social programmes in
recent years, little is known about the effectiveness of these programmes in
§
A
Dynamic Approach to
Other Academic Conferences:
§
European
Summer Symposium in Labour Economics (with IZA, and sponsored by the DWP) –
Ammersee, September 2004. Hosted by the IZA in the Ammersee facility of Deutsche
Post, ESSLE is designed to bring together economists in the field from across
Programmes and papers for all meetings may be obtained
from http://www.cepr.org/meets/97MEETS/pastmeetings.asp
Publications:
§
European
Migration: What do We Know? Klaus F Zimmermann (ed.) (published with Oxford University Press)
Developed countries, especially in Europe,
face a number of issue related to migration: social and economic disruptions
caused by the declining demand for unskilled labour and resulting unemployment,
a shortage of skilled labour in many professions, increasing international
competition for highly qualified human capital, radical demographic changes,
and the forthcoming expansion of the European Union, which will trigger further
immigration into major European countries and create new market opportunities
in Central and Eastern Europe.
Surprisingly, there is wide evidence that
immigration is largely beneficial for receiving countries. There might be
phases of adjustment, but there is no convincing evidence that natives' wages
are depressed or unemployment increases as a consequence of migrant inflow.
However, there is a growing impression that migration does serve less and less
the needs of the labour market. This suggests a stronger focus on economic
channels of immigration, for which the book provides a conceptual basis and the
required empirical facts and institutional background.
Further details on this publication can be obtained
from: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/books/oup/ouplist.asp?cvno=P111
Programme Directors:
Raquel Fernández (London School of Economics and New York University)
Thomas Piketty (ENS-CEPREMAP)
Number of Researchers: Fellows: 64
Affiliates: 40
Discussion Papers Published: 95
Research Themes:
Political economy and the reform of European
institutions: the
relationship between the political system, coalition formation and the
performance of institutions; the political economy of international financial
institutions; the role of institutions in economic growth and development.
Taxation and income distribution: the impact of taxes and transfers on
economic behaviour and distributive outcomes; tax competition and tax
harmonisation in
Welfare state: the role of the public and the private sector in the
provision of welfare services; the financing of the welfare state and its
impact on European financial markets.
Behavioural Economics: Economics and psychology.
The economics of education: education and income distribution; efficiency and
equity in educational systems; local externalities.
Current Projects:
§
The
Economics of Education and Education Policy in
Other Academic Conferences:
§
CEPR/SNS
Public Policy Symposium –
Programmes and papers for all meetings may be obtained
from http://www.cepr.org/meets/97MEETS/pastmeetings.asp
Initiative Co-ordinators:
Kevin O’Rourke (Trinity College, Dublin and Institute for International Integration Studies (IIIS))
Stephen Broadberry (University of Warwick)
Number of Researchers: 27 (already Fellows and Affiliates under other programmes )
Fellows: 25
Affiliates: 2
Discussion Papers Published (since Initiative formally launched): 11
Research Themes:
The Economic History Initiative, launched in April
2004, aims to facilitate interaction between quantitative economic historians
and the rest of the economics profession in
Current Projects:
§
Past,
Present and Policy: Lessons from Economic History, Series of annual meetings, co-ordinated by Marc
Flandreau (Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris). The first meeting, which
coincided with the launch of the Initiative, was held in
§
Unifying
the European Experience: Historical Lessons of Pan-European Development (EU Research Training Network): 2004 -
2008. Co-ordinated by Kevin O'Rourke. The network will analyse the economic
development of
Other Academic Conferences:
§
The
Long Run Growth and Development of the World Economy– Venice, May 2005
Programmes and
papers for all meetings may be obtained from http://www.cepr.org/meets/97MEETS/pastmeetings.asp