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Development Centre Newsletter - November 2014

 

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Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2015: Strengthening Institutional Capacity

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The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2015, prepared by the OECD Development Centre and the ASEAN Secretariat, was officially launched by the OECD Deputy Secretary-General at the ASEAN Business and Investment Summit in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar on 13 November. Apart from covering growth forecast and macroeconomic challenges for the region, this edition focuses on strengthening institutional capacity – which includes reviews of medium-term plan implementation, public sector reform efforts and the state of informality in the region.

While the outlook for many OECD countries remains subdued, Emerging Asia is set for healthy growth over the medium term, according to the latest report. Annual GDP growth for the ASEAN10, China and India is forecast to average 6.5% over 2015-19. The region remains exposed to domestic and external risks, however, that make continued reform, regional integration and the strengthening of institutional capacities critical. The Outlook sees the large ASEAN-5 economies – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam – sustaining their growth momentum over the medium term, led by Indonesia (6.0%) and the Philippines (6.2%). Economic prospects for Brunei Darussalam and Singapore are stable, while Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar are set to speed ahead with average annual growth exceeding 7%.

This report also informs several dialogue initiatives of the Development Centre, such as the Asian Regional Roundtable (ADB-OECD-AMRO) and the annual EMnet session on Southeast Asia.

Main Findings and Policy Recommendations (PDF)

www.oecd.org/dev/asia-pacific

Social Cohesion Policy Review of Viet Nam

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The Doi Moi reform process, which started in 1986, set Viet Nam on a high growth path with the emergence of a large middle class. There has been remarkable progress in poverty reduction, but, the majority of the middle classes are still in the informal sector, deprived of adequate social protection. There are questions about the extent to which recent achievements have been translated into well-being for all groups of the population and how structural transformation is impacting various forms of social cohesion.

The Social Cohesion Policy Review of Viet Nam provides a picture of the state of social cohesion in the country through three lenses: social inclusion, social mobility and social capital, and discusses implications for employment, social protection, education, health and fiscal policies.

The report was launched on 28 October in Hanoi, with the Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs and the Institute of Labour and Social Affairs.

Policy Dialogue on GVCs, Production Transformation and Development

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On 28-29 October the Ministry of International Trade and Industry of Malaysia hosted the third Plenary Meeting of the OECD Policy Dialogue on GVCs, Production Transformation and Development in Kuala Lumpur.

Policy makers from 20 countries from Asia, the Americas, Africa and Europe, representatives from the private sector, academia and international organisations, discussed the main challenges and opportunities that the future of manufacturing poses to countries in terms of jobs, skills, innovation and localisation of economic activities. During the debate particular attention was given to the upgrading opportunities of SMEs and the key challenges for policies, as well as the trends in the electronics industry. Participants expressed strong support to strengthen measurement capabilities and welcomed the capacity building session on TiVA (OECD/WTO Trade in Value Added Database), organised to discuss interpretation of this newly generated data.

Participating countries also discussed the results of the Initiative’s Working Group on Country Studies, and welcomed the proposed framework for the new policy assessment and guidance tool (Production Transformation Policy Reviews- PTPRs), developed to support the knowledge sharing process on countries’ experiences in diversification and upgrading.

This Month

Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2015: Strengthening Institutional Capacity

Social Cohesion Policy Review of Viet Nam

Policy Dialogue on GVCs, Production Transformation and Development

visit our website at www.oecd.org/dev

Upcoming Events

• Paris, 24-25/11/2014
DevCom Annual Meeting and launch of the first DevCom-DAC 12 Lessons Series

• Oslo, 27/11/2014
Launch of the 2014 edition of the Social Institutions and Gender Index (new data available 27/11)

• Veracruz, 9/12/2014
Launch of the Latin American Economic Outlook 2015: Education, Skills and Innovation for Development

Did you know?

…The Development Centre is part of the LDC IV Monitor, an independent partnership established in September 2011 by eight organisations to contribute to an improved delivery of commitments made to the least developed countries (LDCs), charted out in the Istanbul Programme of Action (IPoA)

…income mobility is high in Viet Nam: 59% of households experienced an income increase of more than 20%. Still, 18% of the households saw their income decrease over time.

The Wire

Devex
7 things we learned at the Africa forum

Financial Times - This is Africa Perception risks from Ebola may hurt Africa’s economies

Channel New Asia

Countries like Malaysia could face the middle-income trap and comprehensive reforms in policy and institutions need to be made

The Straits Times

Indonesia’s role in Asia’s problematic but promising future

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Read more on our ongoing projects:

- Policy Dialogue on Natural Resource-based Development

- OECD Initiative on Global Value Chains, Production Transformation and Development

- OECD Multi-dimensional Country Reviews

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