The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered the most severe global economic recession in nearly a century. Last year, the OECD projected GDP growth in 2020 and beyond, but today, the picture is starkly different. The path to economic recovery is highly uncertain and is vulnerable to another wave of infections. Two scenarios are likely: in one, a second wave of Covid-19 hits, with renewed lock-downs, and world GDP plummets 7.6 % in 2020; in the other, a second wave is avoided and global GDP falls 6% this year. In both scenarios, the recovery will be slow and the crisis will leave long-lasting scars.