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The recovery is strengthening and growth will reach 2.8% in 2019. Solid investment growth reflects improving confidence thanks to recent reform efforts, including in financial markets. Surprisingly low inflation has enhanced the room for monetary easing, which has improved financial conditions. Growth is expected to gain momentum on the basis of further improvements in investment and a recovery of private consumption on the back of lower inflation.
Fiscal sustainability, and hence investor confidence, remains at risk without a pension reform. Strengthening the focus of social spending towards those most in need and scaling back ineffective regressive tax breaks and subsidies for specific economic sectors can make public expenditures more effective and more inclusive, and rein in opportunities for corruption. Maintaining strong growth will require further efforts to strengthen productivity, including via greater integration into the global economy.
Economic Survey of Brazil (survey page)