New OECD Insights blog exploring the relationship between international trade and agriculture.
Latest indications confirm the abundance of wheat supplies and improved production prospects for maize. The outlook for soybeans is equally positive. Although rice production prospects have been revised downward somewhat, availabilities remain ample. Against this background, international prices of AMIS crops generally weakened in September.
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The March 2014 Market Monitor for the Agricultural Market Information System
OECD is contributing to AMIS, an agricultural market information system aimed at addressing food price volatility through more timely, accurate and transparent information on global food markets.
Global agricultural production is expected to grow 1.5% a year on average over the coming decade, compared with annual growth of 2.1% between 2003 and 2012, according to the latest OECD-FAO agricultural market projections for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of featured commodities.
Agricultural trade can be a powerful engine for economic growth, poverty reduction, and development. However, efforts by developing countries to expand their agricultural trade are often hampered by domestic supply-side constraints such as lack of trade-related infrastructure. This report looks at some of the most important of these constraints, and features case studies from Indonesia, Zambia and Mozambique.
This study provides quantitative assessments of the impact of two structural changes that a number of market observers have identified as contributing to world wheat market price volatility. The factors examined relate to changes in demand in the large emerging countries of the BRICs (comprising Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China).
Recent experience of highly turbulent markets has renewed interest in quantitative assessment of price volatility by stochastic simulations using the AGLINK-COSIMO model. Measuring the contribution of correlation of yield shocks to price volatility, this paper shows that correlation effects account for a significant portion of price volatility for coarse grains and wheat.
Rio+20 faces challenges that the Rio Earth Summit could not have foreseen: a growing gap between the rich and the poor, a global economic crisis, and some 2 billion more people by 2050 relying on the planets natural resources and the environment.
Market thinness, where there are few buying or selling offers, can contribute to price volatility. Contrary to general assumptions, agricultural commodity markets have not become 'thinner', according to this study of trade in selected commodities from 1970 to 2010.