The OECD has published CLIs since 1981. The CLIs are aggregated time series and up to December 2008 they have been compiled using a modified version of the method developed by the US National Bureau of Economic Research. Starting from December 2008 this approach has been replaced by the Hodrick-Prescott filter. For most countries, total industrial production (IIP) is used as a proxy measure (or reference series) for GDP as historical turning points of IIP have coincided with those of the entire economies.

The CLI comprises a set of component series selected from a wide range of key short-term economic indicators to ensure that the indicators will still be suitable when changes in economic structures occur in future.

While theory says that a turning point in the CLI signals a turning point in the reference series, such turning points, in reality, are determined by a complicated process. Therefore, one often needs to wait for several periods to draw a more definite conclusion. A useful way to exploit the information in CLIs is to take their year-on-year growth rate.

Component series and turning points  are listed on this website. Terminologies are explained in the glossary . OECD work on CLI regarding methodology and revision, and the relevant papers can be found in the online Sources and definitions.
Schedule for CLI updates

Top of page

Visualize business cycles

with the OECD business cycle clock