A risk premium model of the yen-dollar and DM-dollar exchange rates
OECD Economic Studies No. 9, Autumn 1987. Although the exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, it has proved to be difficult to explain its movements. One of the difficulties is attributable to changes over time in the relative importance of various determinants of exchange rates, such as interest rates and balance of payments. This article tries to explain exchange rate movements by a model with a risk premium term and parameters which are affected by structural shifts in international financial markets. The results show that risk premium factors are highly significant, while real interest rate differentials have been increasing in importance in recent years.
Long abstract