Long abstract

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The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) suggest that some moderation in economic expansion lies ahead in the OECD area. February 2007 data show weakening performance in the CLI's six month rate of change in most of the Major Seven economies. The spreads between short and long-term interest rates are contributing negatively to the performance of the CLIs in all the Major Seven economies, while business confidence is contributing positively in these same countries except Germany. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to strong expansion in China, moderating expansion in India and Brazil, but a weakening outlook for Russia.