Long abstract

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The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) suggest that some moderation in economic expansion lies ahead in the OECD area. January 2007 data show weakening performance in the CLI’s six month rate of change in all the Major Seven economies. Business confidence is contributing negatively to the performance of the CLIs in these same countries, while the spreads between short and long-term interest rates are contributing positively in the United States, Japan, France and Germany. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to strong expansion in China and India.