Long abstract

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Economics Department working paper 174.

For a long time European Economic and Monetary Union was mainly considered an internal European issue and external consequences were largely ignored. In contrast to most previous analyses, this paper looks at a number of international implications of monetary union. It is argued that several factors could contribute to the euro becoming an international currency in the future and a competitor to the US dollar in this respect. The degree of uncertainty attached to this outcome, however, remains considerable and in any event the emergence of the euro as a major international currency is likely to take some time. Given the expected size of the euro-zone and the likelihood of the euro becoming an international currency, fiscal and monetary policies in the area are likely to have a significant impact on the macroeconomic environment in the rest of the world. An important issue is how will monetary union affect major bilateral exchange rate developments and their volatility. A number of factors that are likely to be important in this respect are identified, including the role of fiscal policy, the implementation and conduct of monetary policy as well as the role of structural reforms.